Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 Picks and Predictions on June 1

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The Denver Nuggets had to wait a week to learn who they will play in the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals.

After the Miami Heat outlasted the Boston Celtics in seven games, Denver was quickly installed by sportsbooks as the heavy favorite to win the title. That includes at BetMGM, where the Nuggets opened at -350 on Monday, and the line had shortened even further to -375 by Tuesday night.

The sportsbook also reported that the most bets on exact series outcome was Denver to sweep Miami in four games — with 41 percent of the total bets at +450. The shortest odds belong to the Nuggets at +225 to win in five games, followed by Denver at +325 to win in seven.

The story has been similar at BetRivers, where the Nuggets opened as -400 favorites to beat the Heat (+300), with the line shifting slightly to -385 Tuesday. Denver has accounted for 20.7 percent of all NBA title futures money wagered at the sportsbook since the market opened.

BetRivers did report a $4,000 title bet placed on Miami at +1400 that would pay out $56,000. Another bettor placed an $8,000 wager on Denver at +230 that would collect $18,400.

Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is the heavy favorite to take home NBA Finals MVP honors.

He is being offered at -335 at BetRivers, where he has drawn 72.1 percent of the money wagered on the MVP market despite being backed by just 30.4 percent of the total tickets. Teammate Jamal Murray has drawn 9.2 and 13.5 percent of the action, respectively, the second most among players on both teams.

The Heat are led by Jimmy Butler, who has been backed by 5.2 percent of the money and 9.7 percent of the tickets at +300.

Jokic is an even heavier favorite at BetMGM at -350, followed by Butler at +350 and Murray at +1200.

–Field Level Media

NBA Betting Trends

The Heat are 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games and the total has gone over in 10 of Miami’s last 13 games on the road.

The Nuggets are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games when playing at home against the Heat. The total has gone over in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games against Miami.

NBA Picks and Predictions

For this NBA Finals Game 1 matchup between the Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets, I’m taking the Heat Team Total Over 104.5 (-120). Plus get Free Thursday NBA Basketball Parlay Access, go here.