Braves vs Red Sox MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday May 17

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The Braves may have come in hot, but after stealing Game 1, this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Boston.

Even with a four-game skid, the Red Sox are in a prime position to get right at home. Their offense started to wake up late on Friday, and tonight they’ve got a trusted veteran taking the mound who just looked the best he has all year.

🧢 Boston Starter: Lucas Giolito
Giolito (1-1, 5.51 ERA) finally looked sharp in his last start against Kansas City, giving up just one run on two hits across five innings. More importantly, he said after the game he feels 100 percent healthy for the first time all season. No more hamstring issues. No more elbow discomfort. Just focused baseball.

He’s struggled historically against Atlanta, giving up 13 runs in under 10 innings, but this is a different situation and a new uniform. He’s at home, coming off a confidence-building win, and facing a Braves lineup that could regress after a big night.

📉 Atlanta Overview
The Braves climbed above .500 for the first time this year with Friday’s win. But tonight they hand the ball to Grant Holmes (2-3, 4.14 ERA), who hasn’t won since April 20. He’s gone four straight starts without a win, and while his stuff has been decent, he’s far from dominant.

Atlanta is just 8-15 on the road this season and hasn’t shown much consistency away from home.

💡 Why Boston is the Play
Giolito’s trending in the right direction
Boston’s offense showed signs of life with Duran and Sogard both getting multi-hit games Friday
Refsnyder’s solo shot added late momentum
The Red Sox have been facing elite pitching for days straight. That pressure eases tonight
Atlanta’s offense could slow down and Holmes is unproven on the road

👉 The Bet: Red Sox ML -120
Great setup at home with a veteran arm and a lineup due for a breakthrough. This is a value spot for Boston to stop the bleeding and get back in the win column.

Let’s grab the edge before first pitch and ride with the Sox tonight.